In an interview with CNBC, Kevin Hassett, who heads the National Economic Council, said there were many reasons to be bullish about the US economy, despite some predictions of a contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter and concerns about inflation.
Trump's tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico were already having the intended effect of bringing manufacturing and jobs back to the United States, he said.
"There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data," Hassett said, saying those stemmed from both timing effects of Trump's rapid-fire tariffs push and some of what he called "Biden inheritance".
Trump officials have repeatedly criticised the economy that they inherited from former US president Joe Biden.
But when Trump's administration took office, GDP growth had largely exceeded trend for two years, consumer spending was strong and unemployment was still near historical lows.
Several recent indicators have pointed to a softening trend, and the New York Fed's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations out on Monday concluded: "Households expressed more pessimism about their year-ahead financial situations in February, while unemployment, delinquency, and credit access expectations deteriorated notably."
The percentage of households expecting the jobless rate to be higher a year from now rose to its highest since September 2023.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's closely followed GDP Now tracker suggests the economy could contract in the first three months of the year, largely due to an outsized drag from net trade.
Hassett said that would be a "very temporary phenomenon," driven largely by a historical tendency to hold off on investment after a big election.
This tendency should be resolved this month, and tariff uncertainty should be resolved in April, he said.
Economists at Goldman Sachs have cut their 2025 US growth forecast and raised their inflation forecast, "both on the back of more adverse tariff assumptions".
They said their growth estimate was now below the consensus figure for the first time in two-and-a-half years.
Trump has imposed an additional 20 per cent tariff on Chinese goods entering the United States as well as 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, although he suspended most of the duties on US neighbours until April 2, when he plans to unveil a global regime of reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners.
The seesaw tariff announcements have unnerved Wall Street - the US benchmark S&P 500 index has given up all of its gains since Trump's November election.
It slumped again on Monday, hitting its lowest since September.
Hassett struck an upbeat note, arguing US tax cuts would boost the economy, increase investment and boost real wages by the second quarter, offsetting any negative fallout from the tariffs.
"Just be very wary ... of conversations about recession," he said.
"What I think that what's going to happen is the first quarter is going to squeak into the positive category, and then the second quarter is going to take off as everybody sees the reality of the tax cuts," he said.
Hassett rejected the notion that consumers would bear the brunt of tariffs proposed and implemented, noting that having US content would allow foreign producers to avert tariffs in many cases.
He noted that trade comprised only "a fraction" of the US economy, and even if there was a small change in the price of imported goods, real wages were expected to go up as manufacturing employment rose.
