Ruling party likely to hang on in Kosovo election

Data from four organisations that conducted post-election surveys and gave forecasts suggest that the centre-right Democratic Party (PDK) took 19 per cent to 23 per cent of the votes, the centrist Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) 19 per cent to 20 per cent and the conservative Alliance for the Future (AAK) six per cent to eight per cent.

Other parties and alliances are likely to have failed at the five per cent hurdle, which decides who enters the parliament in Pristina.

Regardless of this, 20 of the 120 seats are reserved for ethnic minority groups: 10 for Serbs and a further 10 for others, including Bosniaks, Turks and Roma.

Kosovo, which is now almost exclusively inhabited by Albanians, used to be a Serbian province. In 1998-99, Serbia responded to an armed uprising by Kosovo Albanians with massacres and expulsions.

In 1999, NATO air strikes forced Belgrade to withdraw its security forces from the province. The country was governed by the United Nations administration UNMIK until it declared its independence in 2008.

This put Kosovo on a volatile geopolitical fault line. While Germany, the US, most EU countries and almost 100 other states recognised Kosovo's statehood, Serbia, Russia and China did not.

During his time in office, Kurti succeeded in eliminating the parallel structures operated by Serbia in northern Kosovo.

Among other things, he stopped the use of the Serbian dinar as a means of payment and closed Serbian post offices. While drawing criticism from Western partners, this earned him great approval from the Kosovar population.

At the same time, Kurti is criticised for having only fulfilled a few of his ambitious reform promises. Political opponents also accuse him of having permanently damaged relations with Washington.

In the last parliament, Kurti's Vetëvendosje had a comfortable majority together with lawmakers from the ethnic minorities. After this election, Kurti may have to look for other partners for a new government mandate.