He was tracking ahead of his nearest rival, leftist Luisa Gonzalez, who was tallying 42.9 per cent on Sunday.
Noboa, first elected in 2023 to finish out his predecessor's term, says his deployment of the military on the streets and within prisons, among other measures, has reduced violent deaths by 15 per cent, drastically curtailed prison violence and facilitated the capture of major gang leaders.
His 15 opponents have said that more needs to be done to fight the drug trade-related crime that has rocked Ecuador in recent years, but some of their proffered solutions would require tricky legislative approval or constitutional changes.
Noboa says he is already implementing other policy ideas, like increased security at borders and ports.
Noboa, the 37-year-old heir to a business fortune, has said that he intends to win outright on Sunday.
Two major pre-election polls indicated he could, either by getting more than 50 per cent of the vote or by winning at least 40 per cent while being 10 points ahead of his nearest rival.
One exit poll by strategy firm Diego Tello Estrategas and released by television station Teleamazonas just after polls closed on Sunday showed Noboa in the lead, with 50.12 per cent, and Gonzalez second with 42.21 per cent. The margin of error was 2.98 per cent.
Other pre-election surveys suggest he will not win outright on Sunday but would triumph in an April run-off against leftist Gonzalez, whom he also faced in 2023.
Both candidates have urged their voters to watch counts at polling stations to prevent any fraud and Gonzalez's mentor, former President Rafael Correa, posted on X on Sunday evening asking her supporters not to leave their polling stations.
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