If the polls are correct, Hamilton West will turn blue in Saturday's poll, confirming a swing away from Jacinda Ardern's Labour government and putting the opposition National party in the box seat to win power at a 2023 general election.Â
The Waikato seat is a true bellwether, won by the highest-polling party at every general election since 1993, and is up for grabs after the resignation of Gaurav Sharma, one of the year's defining stories and scandals.
Dr Sharma, a beneficiary of the 2020 Labour landslide, was suspended and then expelled by Ms Ardern's caucus for breaching party rules in August.
In October, he responded by resigning from parliament, only to stand for the seat he vacated under the banner of a new centrist party, "Momentum".
"I'm excited. I'm getting a lot of positive responses," Dr Sharma told AAP.
According to the only published poll of the campaign, Dr Sharma is out of the race.
A poll undertaken by Curia on behalf of right-wing lobby group the Taxpayers Union showed Dr Sharma on just four per cent, despite his incumbency.
With just 400 responses, and less than 300 with confirmed views, Dr Sharma dismissed the poll as too small to matter.
"I think it is a three way contest," he said.
"One of the things I am hearing on the ground is consistent opposition to the government. People are very unhappy."
Growing discontent with the Labour government seems likely to tip the seat to National candidate Tama Potaka ahead of Labour nominee Georgie Dansey.
Mr Potaka had the support of 46 per cent of voters in the Curia poll, ahead of Ms Dansey with 33 per cent, though privately, the major parties believe the race is closer.
Both Ms Ardern and opposition leader Chris Luxon have claimed underdog status.
"It's a pretty close fight I'd say," Mr Luxon said, "and we're fighting incredibly hard."
"We're just focused on this week and making sure that we get our messages out. Obviously, crime and the cost of living have been the major issues."
The prime minister pointed to pitiful interest in the non-compulsory election.
Just 7900 advance ballots have been cast to Wednesday, below the 12,000 ballots cast at the equivalent stage in another by-election this year in Tauranga, and further still behind pre-polling numbers in the 2020 general election.
Ms Ardern said that would be "quite determinative", casting a negative picture for Ms Dansey.
"It's a generally accepted principle that often those who tend to be progressive voters turn out often when turnout is better," she said.
"There's a job for everyone to do to encourage those who are part of this by-election to make sure they go and exercise their vote."
If Labour does lose Hamilton West, it will still hold a majority in parliament, with 64 MPs in the 120-seat chamber.
The next general election is due in late 2023.
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