As New Zealand's election campaign draws towards polling day, Opposition Leader Chris Luxon is confident.
Hold tight - we’re checking permissions before loading more content
Confident enough to take a golf swing at a driving range packed with water traps on a windy Palmerston North day.
It's a tough ask for a non-golfer, but the 53-year-old takes off his jacket, swings truly and sees his ball find land, bouncing towards a hole.
Mr Luxon is relishing the campaign trail, taking the sort of risks that only a confident candidate can, buoyed by polls showing he is four weeks away from becoming prime minister.
"Forget the Spanish football team. Palmerston North is awesome," he says, earning a smattering of laughs as he recalls the FIFA Women's World Cup winners' walkout from their training base in the regional city, citing boredom.
It's been more than three months since Labour led the National Party in a single poll, with trends favouring Mr Luxon's centre-right party.
While Labour leader Chris Hipkins' campaign is lacking energy, National is fizzing with it.
National has the benefit of more funding, bringing more advertising and signage, all emblazoned with the same message: "Get New Zealand Back on Track".
At a public meeting at Palmerston North's Distinction Hotel, Mr Luxon offers a few hundred locals his key message: the government is to blame for cost of living pressures.
"There has been economic mismanagement on scale that we haven't seen before in New Zealand. That has caused real hurt and suffering for people," he says.
He talks about growing national debt and crime, and lower educational achievement, painting himself as a Mr Fix It prime minister with skills from his turnaround stint as Air New Zealand chief executive.
"We have some serious problems," he said.
"In my world, I define a problem really clearly and form the practical, common sense solutions to deal with it."
One young man asks why he shouldn't follow several of his friends by moving to Australia in the hope for better economic fortunes.
"Don't go to Australia ... there are Australians there," he says to the biggest laugh of the afternoon.
"Tell your friends that hope is coming. Help is coming."
Voters are buying Mr Luxon's message.
Polls show an increasing gulf between the National and Labour parties, though that doesn't tell the whole story.
Under New Zealand's mixed member proportional (MMP) electoral system, coalition building is key, which means National must rely on other parties to govern.
Which parties it will rely on could shape the final four weeks of campaigning, given it will heavily shape the government's policy platform.
Right-wing libertarians ACT are a certain partner, and promises a smaller government, a new tax system and growth-friendly policies.
Winston Peters' populists New Zealand First is another option, with polling suggesting they could return to parliament.
The 78-year-old has courted anti-trans and anti-vax sentiment on the campaign trail, even suggesting Maori are not indigenous in one odd rant.
Mr Luxon says he could work with ACT, but has remained cagey over a partnership with NZ First, whether in a formal coalition, or confidence and supply-style deal.
"I'm not interested in talking about New Zealand First ... I want to focus on the National Party and I want to focus on partnering with ACT," he said, before offering a slice of light for a three-party coalition.
"I have to work with the MMP system at the end of the day ... on the other side I have to make it work," he said.
ACT leader David Seymour - who despises Mr Peters after several political spats - said he would not entertain him returning to cabinet.
"If you need to make a government work, then you make it work," he told The Spinoff.
"But we're not going to sit around the cabinet table with this clown ... there's so many reasons why you wouldn't trust them."
Australian Associated Press