GVL Data | Splitting the top two statistically

By Matthew Kappos

Aug 28, 2024

Echuca and Shepparton are set to tussle again, this time in a GVL qualifying final. Photo: Aidan Briggs

With the regular season in the books, Echuca now looks toward claiming a third successive flag, beginning with a qualifying final against Shepparton on Saturday.

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The two sides will take to the field at Tatura Recreation Reserve, with Echuca looking to repeat the form that saw it take down the Bears by 70 points in round 10.

Despite the big scoreline, the game remains Shepparton’s only loss of the year, the Murray Bombers earning top spot on the ladder only by percentage.

Looking at the two sides holistically, it would seem that they match up pretty well, logging identical inside 50 numbers (53.6), and a comparable number of marks per game (Echuca 101.6, Shepparton 103.4), turnovers (Echuca 67.9, Shepparton 67.1), and hit-outs (Echuca 60.8, Shepparton 62.4).

However, there are a number of metrics in which the teams diverge, indicating the two sides’ different styles of play.

The Murray Bombers enjoy a little bit more of the ball, plus 17.1 in disposals over the Bears, but interestingly, the advantage is made up entirely of handballs, Echuca distributing it by hand 20.3 more time per game and actually employing fewer kicks than Shepparton.

This would seem to indicate that Echuca is more measured when moving the ball, more often able to find a nearby teammate rather than going long.

Also of note are the two sides’ clearance numbers, not only because the Murray Bombers hold a 4.2 per game advantage, but because of the way they use the ball.

In an often chaotic contest situation, Echuca is one of the best at maintaining its composure and picking out an effective disposal.

The Murray Bombers have a commendable 71 per cent clearance effectiveness, far outpacing Shepparton (64 per cent) and leading by even more over the league average (61 per cent).

Where the Bears make their money is in the rough and tumble of the contest.

Shepparton leads Echuca in many of the effort stats, with a huge margin in tackles (68.3 to 55.2) and overall pressure (147 to 124.3) while also holding small advantages in smothers, spoils and intercept possessions.

On raw numbers, Echuca is the best defensive team in the league, having conceded almost 300 fewer points than Shepparton in second place.

However, there does appear to be some advantage to defensive experience, as the Bears are much more accurate when getting out of trouble, with a 71 per cent rebound 50 percentage compared to the Murray Bombers’ 62 per cent.