Wet weather sets in across the Goulburn Valley

By Tyler Maher and Nicola Ceccato

Jun 6, 2023

When it rains it pours: There’s plenty of rain set for Shepparton this week. Photo by Megan Fisher

Winter has well and truly arrived in Greater Shepparton and with it has come a wet week which will continue across the next few days.

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From 9am on Monday, June 5, to 5pm on Tuesday, June 6, Shepparton recorded 18mm of rain, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

More rain is on the way for Wednesday, June 7, with 10-25mm forecast and between 8mm and 30mm expected for Thursday, June 8.

There is an initial flood watch — first issued at 3.11pm on Tuesday — in place for parts of northern Victoria, including the Seven and Castle creeks.

Vic Emergency has reported that minor to isolated moderate flooding may develop from overnight on Wednesday, June 7, to Thursday, June 8, in the Seven and Castle creeks area.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to hit the northern part of Victoria, due to a low pressure trough and cold front that will track eastwards on Wednesday.

During this time, widespread rainfall totals of 30mm to 40mm are expected in the flood watch area with isolated heavier falls of 70mm to 100mm possible with thunderstorms and in areas with higher terrain.

River level rises are likely in catchments within the flood watch area where minor flooding can develop overnight and isolated moderate flooding is also possible in areas with the heaviest rainfall.

Currently, catchments across central and north-eastern Victoria are graded average to wet.

Other catchments likely to be affected include the Upper Murray and Mitta Mitta rivers, Kiewa River and Ovens and King rivers.

The bureau also updated its expectations of an El Niño developing this year from ‘watch’ to ‘alert’, reflecting a 70 per cent chance of it occurring.

El Niño describes the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affect global weather and it occurs on average every three to five years.

During El Niño, there is a higher chance of drier weather in eastern Australia and it is more likely to be warmer than usual for the southern two-thirds of Australia.

“The Bureau’s long-range winter forecast is for drier and warmer conditions across almost all of Australia and the climate conditions in the Pacific Ocean are already factored into our forecasts,” Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Catherine Ganter said.

“The long-range forecast for winter also shows an increased chance of below-average rainfall for almost all of Australia and the move to El Niño ‘alert’ does not change this forecast.”