Data released to accompany the Federal Government’s 2021 Population Statement shows net internal migration for Victoria will rise from 12,300 in 2021 to as high as 14,700 in 2022.
Net internal migration has been a significant factor in demand for land and rising house prices in City of Greater Shepparton this year.
The flight factor has been driven by affordability and more flexible work arrangements brought on by the pandemic.
Regional areas have also faced far fewer lockdowns than Melbourne.
Net internal migration is forecast to fall to 10,000 in 2023 and settle at around 6000 a year.
Annual population growth in regional Victoria will peak at 1.2 per cent in 2022.
Victoria will be back in positive territory in 2022 after recording a negative growth rate of 0.5 per cent in 2021, mainly due to the absence of migration and more than 17,000 people moving interstate.
Compared to projections made before the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s population is projected to be 1.5 million smaller than previously expected after 10 years.
While the outlook remains uncertain due to the unpredictability of COVID-19, population growth is projected to increase to around 1.4 per cent by 2024-25 as overseas migration recovers.
In contrast to other developed countries, the statement notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has so far had minimal impact on Australia’s birth and death rates.
Capital cities are forecast to return to higher growth rates than rest-of-state areas from 2022-23 as restrictions are relaxed and overseas migration returns.
Melbourne is projected to be the fastest growing capital city from 2023-24 onwards, overtaking Sydney to become the nation’s largest city in 2029-30 at just over 5.9 million people.
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