River to now peak at Shepparton on Friday afternoon or night

This is a drop of another 30cm from the peak that had been most recently anticipated, and a drop of 60cm from the initial peak prediction made on Monday morning.

The new predicted peak, however, will still mean that some streets and roads will flood, and there will be flooding on some properties.

No homes will flood though, and Greater Shepparton City Council community and municipal emergency management office director Louise Mitchell said the risk to properties was “more one of isolation than inundation”.

The revised peak time was announced on Thursday afternoon, and was considerably later than the earlier predicted peak of midnight on Thursday.

Shepparton Incident Control Centre incident controller Ray Jasper said the later expected peak time was because the water flow down the river had slowed down considerably on Thursday.

“And we’re losing a lot of water,” he said.

“The volume is not there. It has slowed right down because the volume is not pushing it as fast.”

Mr Jasper said the lower predicted level of 10.4m was good news for the people of Shepparton and Mooroopna.

“It started as a major flood of (a predicted peak of) 11m, then it was 10.7 and now 10.4m,” Mr Jasper said.

“Each lowering of the height is good news.”

Mr Jasper said the numbers had changed as soil dryness of land upstream had meant some water had been absorbed, while some would have evaporated in the hot weather.

However, he defended the initial prediction of 11m.

“Just look at Yea and Seymour and what happened there,” Mr Jasper said.

“Modelling was done from that.

“That’s what we thought it (the level) would be.

“It’s not an exact science.”

Mr Jasper said water feeding into the Goulburn upstream from rivers such as King Parrot Creek and the Yea River — which were the highest they had been in a long time — influenced the levels in the Goulburn.

“There was 180mm (of rain) across the catchment in a 100km area behind Yea and Seymour. That’s a lot,” Mr Jasper said.

As the flood approaches the town, Watt Rd between Kialla and Mooroopna remains closed after shutting at 5pm on Wednesday.

On Thursday afternoon, Regional Roads Victoria also announced a reduced speed limit for traffic travelling between the two towns on the causeway from 80km/h to 40km/h.

The halving of the speed limit was due to rising waters in the surrounding area impacting the adjacent walking track and the increased risk of wildlife crossing the road.

Other changes on Thursday in readiness for the rising floodwater included the closing of the Victoria Park Lake Caravan Park in Shepparton and the Australian Botanic Gardens in Kialla.

With some streets flooding, Mr Jasper warned people not to drive through floodwater if they could not see the bottom.

“The key message is that it is dropping, but it is still a flood,” Mr Jasper said.

“Don’t be complacent.”

Mr Jasper, however, is not concerned about any forecast rain in Shepparton for Friday or Saturday.

Heavier rain is forecast for the north-east, East Gippsland and southern NSW, but Mr Jasper said it was not expected to affect any flooding in the Shepparton area.

“Rain here has not been factored into equations because we don’t think it will do anything,” he said.

As preparations start downstream of Shepparton, CFA volunteers doorknocked homes in the Lower Moira area on Thursday to warn people some homes and properties may be isolated as floodwater continues downstream.

No water is expected to enter homes.

According to VicEmergency, the Goulburn River at McCoys Bridge may exceed minor flood level on Saturday, while a peak near moderate flood level may occur from Sunday into next week.

The peak forecasts for McCoys Bridge will be refined once the peak is reached at Shepparton.

As for Loch Garry, the predicted peak in Shepparton of 10.4m is just above the level of 10.36m that would see Goulburn-Murray Water operate Loch Garry.

G-MW incident controller Warren Blyth said if the water level at Shepparton reaches above 10.36m, G-MW would send Loch Garry flood protection customers a text message to tell them the regulator would be operated in 24 hours’ time.

“If the river falls back below 10.36m within the 24-hour timeframe, the regulator will still be operated,” Mr Blyth said.

“This is because the scenario for events below 11m dictates that the bars should be removed and replaced in accordance with what the river height was 24 hours beforehand.”