Population growth in regional Victoria, driven by people relocating from Melbourne, is expected to peak in 2022 before tailing off.
Data released to accompany the Federal Government’s 2021 Population Statement shows net internal migration for Victoria will rise from 12,300 in 2021 to as high as 14,700 in 2022.
Net internal migration has been a significant factor in demand for land and rising house prices in the Goulburn Valley and Campaspe regions this year.
Charles L King First National Real Estate principal Gary Wood said there was a significant difference in the availability of land on the NSW side of the river, compared to Victoria.
Mr Wood said Echuca was “probably a little choked for land”, but Moama had been very clever in the timing of its land releases.
“They have released land in the right time. There are just no residential lots left in Echuca in the moment,” he said.
“In saying that I treat Echuca and Moama as the one entity and if we got 50 or 60 families relocating to the area it could work.”
Mr Wood did explain the problem for those people re-locating from metropolitan region may more be in engaging a builder.
“I don’t know how they are going to get their houses built. The problem may be finding a builder,” he said.
Mr Wood said Echuca and Moama had just come off a huge run of block sales.
“There will be plenty of blocks to buy. They are just not released right now,” he said.
“But we will see enough blocks come onto the market in the next six months to handle any sort of internal migrant movement.”
Mr Wood said there was already a constant flow of Melbourne people, along with people from Ballarat, and in some cases, Bendigo.
He said auction prices had remained high, three auctions a week ago seeing all three homes sell for well above reserve.
The homes were in Hakea Crt at Moama, on the Murray Valley Hwy and in Hopwood St, Echuca.
The flight factor of Melburnians to the regional areas has been driven by affordability and more flexible work arrangements brought on by the pandemic.
Regional areas have also faced far fewer lockdowns than Melbourne.
Net internal migration is forecast to fall to 10,000 in 2023 and settle at about 6000 a year.
Annual population growth in regional Victoria will peak at 1.2 per cent in 2022.
Victoria will be back in positive territory in 2022 after recording a negative growth rate of 0.5 per cent in 2021, mainly due to the absence of migration and more than 17,000 people moving interstate.
Compared to projections made before the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s population is projected to be 1.5 million smaller than previously expected after 10 years.
While the outlook remains uncertain due to the unpredictability of COVID-19, population growth is projected to increase to about 1.4 per cent by 2024-25 as overseas migration recovers.
In contrast to other developed countries, the statement notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has so far had minimal impact on Australia’s birth and death rates.
Capital cities are forecast to return to higher growth rates than rest-of-state areas from 2022-23 as restrictions are relaxed and overseas migration returns.
Melbourne is projected to be the fastest growing capital city from 2023-24 onwards, overtaking Sydney to become the nation’s largest city in 2029-30 at just over 5.9 million people.
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