If this takes place, it would be a metre less than the level of the October 2022 flood event, which peaked at 12.06m on the morning of Monday, October 17.
As of 1.12pm on Tuesday, the river height measured at the Shepparton gauge was 6.62m, with the expectation it would peak on Wednesday between 3pm and 10pm.
So, what might this look like for Shepparton?
According to the SES local flood guide, at 8.75m, Watt Rd and Raftery Rd are expected to start flooding; the Shepparton Incident Control Centre has confirmed the closure of these roads is likely.
At 10.98m, the Macguire Reserve levee overflows to Daintons Bridge, located at the start of the causeway from Shepparton to Mooroopna.
Once the river reaches 11m, it will hit major flood level.
During the 2022 October floods, the causeway was closed just as the Shepparton gauge reached 11.2m.
As the water level is not expected to go that high, the Shepparton Incident Control Centre has confirmed that the causeway is expected to stay open during this flood event.
However, leading up to the road’s closure, and before the gauge hit 11m, traffic was slowed down to 40km/h to protect the local wildlife that was crossing and escaping the floodwaters.
The Shepparton Incident Control Centre said this riverine flood was not expected to inundate homes or businesses, with its peak expected to last only four to five hours rather than a couple of days — the latter being the case during the 2022 October floods.
The Goulburn Broken community Flood Intelligence Portal (https://my.floodreport.com.au/gbcma/) is available for people to enter their home address to see where water will go at different river levels.
To use this portal, click on the Shepparton Mooroopna Flood Study on the map, choose gauge for the type of measurement, choose a scenario for a water level and as this is a dominant Goulburn River case, click on Goulburn for the river case.
For flood information for the City of Greater Shepparton, which includes local flood guides and a municipal flood emergency plan, click here (https://www.ses.vic.gov.au/plan-and-stay-safe/flood-guides/greater-shepparton-city-council).