A national Newspoll survey conducted for The Australian newspaper published on Sunday, has the incumbents leading the coalition 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis ahead of the May 3 election.
The Newspoll survey with 1249 voters was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, after the 2025/26 federal budget on Tuesday and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's reply speech on Thursday.
It showed primary support for Labor lifted from 32 to 33 per cent since the March 10 Newspoll, while the coalition recorded a drop of two percentage points to 37 per cent
The Greens remained at 12 per cent while support for Pauline Hanson's One Nation dropped from seven per cent to six.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese retained and opened up his lead over Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister.
Mr Albanese's lead as preferred prime minister is now his biggest since May 2024.
The polling is the third major survey to show the government gaining ground after Resolve and YouGov polls also reported support swinging Labor's way.
The latest YouGov modelling shows Labor on track to win 75 seats and the coalition 60.
Parties need to get 76 seats for a majority.
Marginal seats in Queensland, NSW and Western Australia, in past elections, have had a lot of sway over who ends up in the Lodge in Canberra.
But this election, political experts see Victoria, particularly Melbourne seats, as a key battleground.
The YouGov modelling projected Labor could lose five seats to the opposition but win two seats back from the Greens and one from the coalition.
It showed the coalition could lose three seats, with all teal independent MPs retaining their seats.
The modelling was carried out through interviews with 38,629 people from February 27 to Wednesday, with the survey results modelled across all 150 electorates.
The Resolve Strategic poll, conducted for Nine newspapers post-budget and published on Sunday, showed the government gaining ground to be neck-and-neck with the coalition (both on 50 per cent) on a two-party preferred basis.
It also showed Mr Albanese (42 per cent) comfortably ahead of Mr Dutton (33 per cent) as preferred prime minister.
The Resolve poll surveyed 3237 voters from Wednesday to Saturday.
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