While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese remains coy about an election date, there's speculation a rate cut could be enough of a trigger to send voters to the ballot box sooner rather than later.
An election must be held by May 17 at the latest, but with cost-of-living issues dominating political debate, any reduction in interest rates will be front of mind with voters, YouGov's polling director Amir Daftari says.
The boost to homeowner hip pockets from the Reserve Bank could be enough of a boost to the government, Mr Daftari said.
"If there is a rate cut, then that might be psychological relief among voters that things are going in the right direction," he told AAP.
"It's an inopportune time for Labor to win but a rate cut would be an opportunity for the government to get ahead of (cost-of-living) issues."
While an interest rate cut on Tuesday would be welcome to many, Mr Albanese opted to avoid speculation it could lead to an earlier than expected election.
"We respect the independent decision that they will make," he told ABC radio.
"They'll make a decision based on economics, not based upon any politics.
"What our job has been to do is to get inflation down - we've done that."
Opinion polls show the government still has a hill to climb to win a second term, with the latest Newspoll revealing the coalition is leading 51 per cent to 49 on a two-party preferred basis.
The coalition remains ahead of Labor in the latest Roy Morgan results, which point to a hung parliament after the election.
Modelling from YouGov projects the opposition will win the most seats, 73, at the election, but that won't be enough for the coalition to govern in its own right.
Mr Daftari said even if there was an interest rate cut, the longer the prime minister waited to drive to Government House to dissolve parliament, the better.
"If you were behind in the polls, you need as much time as possible to catch up," he said.
"Given what the polls are showing, (the prime minister) would want to use the last possible day.
"If I was a strategist in Labor, I would advise to wait until the middle of May."
Interest rates have been on hold at 4.35 per cent since November 2023.
Social Services Minister Amanda Rishworth said the focus of the government had been on reducing the cost of living, but did not comment when asked if Labor needed a cut in the cash rate.
"Our government has done everything we can to push down or put downward pressure on inflation ... our focus has been absolutely on the economy," she told Nine's Today program.
Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young said even if there was an interest rate cut, it wouldn't provide enough financial relief for voters going into an election.
"This will be a very small cut ... anything at this point is helpful, but we need more cost-of-living relief for families, and frankly, we need more from the federal government," she told ABC radio.
"We're all hoping that the RBA does what it should do, and that is to cut rates."
24°C