Australians are the only ones paying more for gas as the exports have driven up domestic prices, according to modelling released on Thursday by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
The first shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Queensland's Gladstone Harbour in 2015 was the start of the nation's rise as one of the world's largest suppliers of the fossil fuel.
It also fired the starting gun on the world's first project to turn coal seam gas (CSG) into LNG for export, locking in higher production costs compared with conventional gas production.
"Few have benefited from this boom, with some, such as domestic gas consumers and Australian manufacturers, ending up worse off," analyst Kevin Morrison said.
Exporting most of the new source of gas has shackled it to volatile global markets, driving up domestic prices, constraining local supply and forcing manufacturers to close, he said.
Domestic gas prices have tripled, with prices for consumers in Australia tipped to remain higher than pre-2015 levels for decades to come.
Future LNG demand from China was uncertain, with potential for significant gas over-contracting by 2030 putting in question contract renewals when existing ones expire, he said.
The three LNG projects at Gladstone faced "significant financial risks" as the global LNG industry entered a period of oversupply, he warned.
"In this context, it will be hard for the Queensland LNG industry to justify continuing to take gas away from a tight domestic market to supply its international consumers," he said.
He also tipped a high risk of financial losses and poor returns on capital for the east coast LNG producers with a wave of new supplies from North America and Qatar looming in coming years.
Meanwhile gas demand in eastern Australia has dropped to a 25-year low and gas demand may fall further in manufacturing, electricity and the residential market because of high gas bills and government policy incentives.
Some had questioned the hype around a "golden age for gas" that promised billions in investment, revenue and royalties on the east coast, Mr Morrison said.
Consultants in 2019 warned that one-third of the state's LNG export industry could close by 2025, partly due to the need to divert gas supplies to domestic users.
While that might not happen, the sector still faced strong headwinds as large gas users and Australian governments tried to ease a tight domestic market, Mr Morrison said.
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