A report commissioned by Unions NSW and authored by Griffith University Professor David Peetz says the public sector pay cap will leave a nurse worse off by $10,136, a paramedic by $10,281 and a teacher by $12,806, when adjusted for inflation between now and 2026.
The three female-dominated professions have suffered sizeable shortages leading to overstretched working conditions prompting major strikes in recent years.
"An easing of public sector wage restraint could not be the only solution to shortages of essential workers. There is no single solution," the 62-page report said.
"But it is difficult to see shortages being overcome in the absence of appropriate changes to wages policy".
Based on an analysis of online job advertisements, NSW essential worker vacancies were 98 per cent higher in 2022 compared to 2018.
For other non-essential workers, the increase was 26 per cent.
The report warns shortages are already being acutely felt on the state's mid north coast and far west as well as th Murray-Riverina, Coffs Harbour-Grafton, Hunter and Richmond-Tweed regions.
Unions NSW Secretary Mark Morey blamed the coalition government for the regression in public sector wages.
"After 12 years of undermining wages and conditions for nurses, paramedics, teachers and other essential workers the effects are devastating," he said at the launch of a campaign on Sunday to scrap the wages cap with 33 days to go until polling day.
"That's why essential services are in crisis. Hospitals are understaffed, we're waiting longer for ambulances and classrooms are crammed without enough teachers. NSW deserves better."
Premier Dominic Perrottet has repeatedly defended the three per cent wage cap saying it is "fair and reasonable".
He has explained it is necessary to keep inflation in check and the state's coffers balanced for future investments in major infrastructure projects.
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