That question will be answered at about 4.30pm on Sunday when the siren sounds on Kyabram and Rochester’s Goulburn Valley League stoush.
A 35km stretch of tarmac separates the two powers and when Rochester hosted Kyabram in round two, an early contender for the game of the season was had.
The Bombers booted a pair of red-time goals to snatch a 9.13 (67) to 9.11 (65) win from under the Tigers’ noses after Ash Watson’s boys had led at every change.
It was a doozy all right.
But can we slide any statistics from the round two clash under the gamma-ray-powered GVL Data microscope to see where this Sunday’s game might be broken open?
The first anomaly that pops out is the disposal count.
Despite the close score margin, Kyabram boasted significantly more use of the football.
The Bombers dominated the touch count 338-280, including +19 in the crucial fourth quarter.
Kyabram was able to find clearer air in the final term, too, with 19 uncontested marks compared to Rochester’s five.
On the inside 50 front, Rochester registered 49 for the game ahead of Kyabram’s 44.
However, this is where the cracks begin to show.
The Bombers clunked 15 grabs inside the arc to the Tigers’ 12, and a look back at Rochester’s wayward 0.4 fourth quarter details how a routine cruise to the checkered flag spun out of control.
Three of the Tigers' four scoring shots were from reasonably shallow marks just inside 50, with the long-range attempts failing to take the right course through the big posts.
However, Kyabram kicked its three final-term majors from reasonably close in.
So while it’s apparent Rochester needed to work the football closer to goals in order to cut down the margin for error, where could the Bombers have improved in quarters one to three to avoid requiring an eleventh-hour comeback to seal the win?
The Tigers led the first-half inside 50 count 30-18, with 43 per cent of the hosts’ points stemming from that source in comparison to Kyabram’s 11 per cent.
Rochester’s first-half pressure also outweighed that of the Bombers (92-60), with Watson’s charges tripling Kyabram’s effective tackles (18-6) in the opening quarter alone.
When push comes to shove on Sunday, Kyabram needs to start hot.
But in equal measure, Rochester must summon more goal-kicking acumen as the game’s wick burns to an end.
It could be the difference between taking the Campaspe crown or being dethroned.
Rochester and Kyabram’s last meeting
Disposals
Rochester: 280
Kyabram: 338
Turnovers
Rochester: 85
Kyabram: 74
Inside 50s
Rochester: 49
Kyabram: 44
Clearances
Rochester: 49
Kyabram: 32
