Rabobank says Australia is looking towards harvesting a “marginally larger” winter crop this season, despite significant weather challenges experienced in a number of key grain-growing regions throughout the year.
The agribusiness banking specialist says in its Australian winter crop forecast, the nation is on track to produce an estimated total winter crop of 47.1 million tonnes, up one per cent (0.5 million tonnes) on the previous season, but down a significant 13 per cent on the five-year average.
A combination of lack of timely rainfall along with late frosts in some regions has taken the edge off this year’s production prospects, the bank says, with overall grain and oilseed production forecast to be down 43 per cent on the previous year in South Australia and 35 per cent in Victoria, two of the hardest-hit states.
New South Wales production is forecast to increase 30 per cent year-on-year and Western Australia, the nation’s largest grain-exporting state, is tracking towards a harvest 19 per cent larger than last, despite a worryingly late start to its growing season.
Report author, RaboResearch analyst Vitor Pistoia said the projected “small uptick” in total crop production in 2024/25 was “poised to come mainly from wheat” and, to a smaller extent, pulses and oats.
“While the wheat harvest is expected to be an improvement on last year, canola and barley production look set to be down year-on-year due to the combination of low rainfall and late frost which struck many crops at a critical period,” he said.
Weather woes
Mr Pistoia said this winter cropping season had been a “mixed bag”, characterised by patchy rainfall, a warm winter and late frosts.
A good start to the season and beneficial rainfall through the growing period in Queensland, northern New South Wales and some areas of Western Australia had largely been “counterbalanced” by a lack of rainfall that had impacted Victorian and South Australian crops, he said.
“This season’s start was variable across the country. While Queensland, the majority of New South Wales and one particular region in Western Australia (around Corrigin in the Central Wheatbelt) got going early on, large swathes of WA, Victoria and South Australia had to wait until early June to see seed germination,” he said.
“Similarly, rainfall through the growing season was patchy and this was coupled with a widespread warmer winter. Higher winter temperatures – of up to two degrees Celsius above average depending on the region – boosted water evaporation at the same time it prompted faster crop development.”
Commodities
The Rabobank report estimates Australia’s 2024/25 wheat production to total approximately 27.6 million tonnes, an increase of six per cent (1.6 million tonnes) on the previous year, albeit down eight per cent on the five-year average. Combined, Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia’s increased wheat production is expected to be 5.7 million tonnes, while production in Victoria and South Australia declined.
Australia’s barley harvest is forecast to decline five per cent (0.5 million tonnes) on the previous year to 10.4 million tonnes (down 21 per cent on the five-year average).
“This expectation is mostly due to the drop in the barley crop in Victoria,” Mr Pistoia said.
Victoria’s barley harvest is expected to be down by one million tonnes on last season, at 1.7 million tonnes.
Similarly, total canola production is predicted to contract by 21 per cent (1.2 million tonnes) on last year’s harvest to 4.7 million tonnes (down 17 per cent on the five-year average).
“As expected at the beginning of the season, canola production is poised to be lower this year, not only because of the smaller cropping area planted to this crop, but also due to the weather setbacks,” Mr Pistoia said.
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