The Broncos, who finished second on the NRL table in 2023 and played in the grand final, will finish 12th if they do not beat competition leaders the Storm at Suncorp Stadium on Thursday night.
Even if they spring an unlikely upset, the best the Broncos could likely finish is 10th as four of the teams above them play each other in the final round, and two of those teams will pick up points for a win or an extra-time draw.
The club's worst historical fall down the table was in 2020 when they secured their first wooden spoon and finished 16th.
That was eight positions lower than where they ended the 2019 season.
This season they are on track to fall 10 positions on the table.
The Broncos will not play finals for the fourth time in five years, with three of those misses being under current coach Kevin Walters.
The 40-6 loss to the Dolphins on Saturday night was also the biggest defeat the Broncos had suffered to a Queensland-based club in their history, surpassing the 36-4 loss to North Queensland in 2006.
With their season on the line, the Broncos dished up an error-ridden mish-mash of mediocrity.
It was also a microcosm of their failings in 2024.
Successful Broncos sides have traditionally risen to the big occasion, not fallen in a screaming heap.
Walters said after the loss that dealing with pressure at the Broncos came with the territory. Captain Adam Reynolds said "Kev is spot-on" when asked if representing the club was not just about playing, but also about winning.
Recruitment will come under the spotlight when the Broncos review their season. On Saturday night the most intimidating forward on the field was blockbusting Dolphins prop Tevita Pangai Jnr, a former Bronco. When Pangai Jnr was aiming to return to the NRL this year, he told AAP he wanted it to be at the Broncos. The Broncos had their chance but passed.
Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett swooped.
The Broncos instead chose former Cowboys forward Jack Gosiewski, an honest toiler but no Pangai Jnr. Mid-season signing Gosiewski, along with 2024 forward recruits Fletcher Baker and Jaiyden Hunt, have had underwhelming years, aside from their injuries.
The Broncos were also out-coached on Saturday night. Bennett switched Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to centre, moved Jake Averillo to five-eighth and brought Trai Fuller in at fullback. The trio had blinders.
Before the match Bennett said: "You can't keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect the same result." The Broncos had a "same-old" look about their line-up and the way they played.
The other black mark against the Broncos is their defence, which has a turnstile aspect to it again. They have already conceded 557 points, the fourth worst in their history. If the Storm score 10 points on Thursday night, only the 2020 wooden-spoon year (624 points) and 14th-placed finish (695 points) in 2021 will be worse.
"We have been leaking way too many points. We have faced a bit of adversity, but we should be good enough to defend errors, and at the moment we are not," Reynolds said.
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