Welcome back to another fine edition of Payney’s Punt.
Hold tight - we’re checking permissions before loading more content
Our faithful audience was made to painfully wait for the return of this column, so the least we can do is provide two in the space of two days.
We are on a quick back-up from our crack at the Melbourne Cup, which unfortunately didn’t deliver us and our loyal readers the thousands that were promised.
Apologies to those who followed our tip in Tuesday’s race, especially that person who we owe a bottle of wine (you know who you are), we will try to do better with our reading of tea leaves in the future.
And it all starts again on Thursday for day three of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, with the running of Group One feature race The Oaks (2500m).
The action is at Flemington and let’s pray that the track staff has it in tip-top condition following Tuesday’s rain.
Showers have persisted since Tuesday and although there isn’t any rain forecast for Thursday, expect the track to be rated either a Soft 5 or 6.
The rail will be out 5m, after it was out 2m on Tuesday, and expect the preferred ground to be away from the rail.
As always, before you go taking on the corporates or take on Betr’s juicy odds, please remember to set a limit and gamble responsibly.
Race 1. 12.40pm ― BM70 (1700m)
A wide-open affair to kick-start proceedings. Expect Missy Longport (17) to take up the front running in a race that doesn’t look to have a lot of speed. Just on this leader, we expect a bold showing. Faded to finish fourth last start in this grade and two horses have since gone on to win from the race. Comes into this race third-up, so should be fit and firing. The only knock we have is that this mare might be wanting dry ground. In terms of the remaining runners, top-weight Arktika (1) is a last-start winner and loves a wet track. Stable is in hot form. Stablemate Matron Bullwinkel (7) is another finding early money. Finished strongly last start and should relish rise in trip. Tahlequah (12) is deep into a long prep and was beaten last start as favourite. Expect her to bounce back.
Top tip: Missy Longport EW
Race 2. 1.15pm ― Ottawa Stakes (1000m)
Another tricky race to navigate for us punters with little race experience to guide us. In terms of race experience, Charm Stone (2) is the one who interests us most. Ran third on debut at this track/distance. Showed plenty of ability. The same can be said for Optume (1). The Lindsay Park runner placed third on debut at Moonee Valley and must be respected. In terms of the debutants, La Demoiselle (13) has blinkers on and showed some talent in a recent jump out. Spicy Margs (15) looks like one that could salute on debut. Keep an eye on market movers and let that dictate where you put your pennies and nickels.
Top tip: Charm Stone
Race 3. 1.50pm ― Inglis Bracelet (1600m)
A bit of an easier process in race three with two leading chances the only serious eye catchers. Roots (8) is who we have landed on after a close second in the Tesio Stakes last start. The short-priced favourite should be able to bounce back in style and regains top hoop James MacDonald, who has won three times from four attempts on the back of the mare. Has a 3:1-1-1 record over the mile and a 7:3-2-0 form on wet ground. Light weight runner Climbing Star (12) demands serious respect and don’t be shocked if she finishes on top. Placed second in the Fillies Classic (Group Two) last start and gets in at 52kg.
Top tip: Roots
Race 4. 2.30pm ― Desirable Stakes (1400m)
Plenty of value here if you can land it. There looks to be a lot of early speed coming from Portray (4), Birdies Galore (5) and Grey River (12). Portray is chasing consecutive wins after a sublime win last start. That came on rain-affected ground and over this journey. Grey River (12) is the favourite for a reason after an eye-catching seven-length victory last start. A steep rise in class. We have gone wide again and have settled on Street Gossip (18). Comes in to this with a flashy win on debut over 1200m on a Heavy 8. Will relish the extra 200m after flying home from last to first. Has plenty of upside and could surprise. Query is the sharp rise in class.
Top tip: Street Gossip (EW)
Race 5. 3.10pm ― BM90 Hcp (1800m)
One clear leader in race five and that’s top weight Holbien (1). We are leaning towards Right You Are (14). Everything is shaping up for this gelding to peak in this race. Has a terrific third-up record and has been racing well this prep. Drops down to 54.5kg and is well weighted. Should find some cover from barrier 13 and maps to land midfield. Also has terrific form at this track with a 3:1-1-1 record. Goes on top as our best of the day.
Top tip: Right You Are
Race 6. 3.50pm ― G.H Mumm Century Stakes (1000m)
Down the straight in race six and local hope Burning the Clock (10) is looking to pull off a fairytale story. Ardmona trainer Ivan Lister saddles up his in-form gelding in this Listed race and what a yarn it would be if he walked away a winner. Rated a $101 chance with the bookies, it’s going to take something special, but stranger things have happened. There’s plenty of early speed in this sprint race and expect about five or six to challenge for the lead. Joyful Fortune (5) is one that will push forward. Comes out of the Everest and should find this easier. Has one win down the straight. Zoustyle (3) has been in stellar form and we’re hoping it can crack through for a win here. Handles a soft track really well and has never missed the placings over this trip. First attempt down the straight is the only knock.
Top tip: Zoustyle and a small flutter on Burning the Clock
Race 7. 4.30pm ― MCC Final (1600m)
A wide-open affair here and it’s another one of those ‘‘close the eyes and have a ping at the stumps’’ type of jobs. There’s a truckload of value here if you can land it, so good luck if you’re playing along at home. Should be early speed out wide and plenty of pace in this race. We love the look of Corona Lad (13) and the gelding is well weighted. Just missed last start after a classy run with 59kg on a Heavy 9. We think he might give up too much of a head start and find himself too far back, but let’s hope that’s not the case. Plenty of others in this race look handy.
Top tip: Corona Lad
Race 8. 5.10pm ― Oaks (2500m)
The feature race on the card and there’s a short favourite that plenty of punters seem to be leaning toward. Shouldn’t be a hell of a lot speed in this race and expect Wakeful Stakes winner Zenzella (2) to roll up and take up the front running alongside Pavitra (4). The former was gutsy last Saturday and can make her own luck again. It’s a toss-up between her and short-priced favourite She’s Extreme (1). Her third-placed finish last start looks like the right form to follow after that race provided the VRC Derby quinella. Has drawn the rails and that could be tricky if the inside is rough going. We know she is short odds for a reason, but it’s hard for us to lean that way. Happy to be wrong. Queen Air (8) caught plenty of eyes after a great finish in the Wakeful and is looking for this trip.
Top tip: Zenzella
Race 9. 5.50pm ― Red Roses Stakes (1100m)
Should be a cracking instalment to finish the day back down the straight. Plenty of speed across the field. Greece (18) was superb on debut to win by four lengths. If the filly backs up that effort then you expect her to win here. She Dances (11) won on debut in style and returns from a spell. We’re keen to see how she performs here. Bound For Home (4) has straight track experience and a 3:2-1-0 record over this journey. Beat home a number of rivals earlier this prep. Impressed on heavy ground and if there’s rain about goes on top.
Top tip: Bound For Home
Best of the Day
When: Today
Where: Flemington
Race 5: 14 Right You Are
Sports Editor